How the NBA Draft Lottery Works
- Jerry
- 4 days ago
- 9 min read
Updated: 2 days ago
And Why Fans Can't Stop Calling It Rigged
The "Simple" Mechanics of a Complicated Show
On paper, the NBA Draft Lottery exists to reward struggling teams and discourage blatant tanking. Fourteen teams—the ones left out of the playoffs—enter a weighted drawing. The worse your record, the better your shot at the top pick. Simple, right?
Except it hasn’t always worked that way. The lottery has a rich history of… “adjustments.”
When the NBA introduced the lottery in 1985, every non-playoff team had an equal shot at the No. 1 pick. Pure chaos. That’s how a 1985 Knicks “frozen envelope” conspiracy was born. The randomness looked fishy right out of the gate.
By 1990, the league realized they needed more “order.” Enter the weighted lottery, where the worst team had the highest odds (up to 25% at one point). This system remained largely intact until the mid-2010s.
But even with weighted odds, teams were openly tanking—throwing games to secure better draft positions. The 2014 Philadelphia “Trust the Process” 76ers became the poster child for weaponized losing. The NBA wasn’t thrilled.
In response, the league flattened the odds in 2019. Now, the three worst teams each get just a 14% chance at the top pick. The idea was to make tanking less appealing by giving slightly better teams a realistic shot to jump the line.
Critically, this entire drawing happens in a sealed room. Phones confiscated. No cameras rolling. Just team reps, league officials, media witnesses, and Ernst & Young auditors watching the bounce.
The “live” lottery show you see on TV? That’s the dramatic reveal after the real draw is already done.
So yes, the mechanics are “simple”—in theory. But the lottery’s long history of tweaks and narrative-serving outcomes keeps fans suspicious that this simplicity is anything but innocent.
Inside the Lottery Machine
How The Drawing Really Works
Today, the lottery process involves:
14 ping pong balls numbered 1-14.
1,001 possible four-ball combinations.
Teams are assigned a share of those combos based on record.
Four balls are drawn to decide the top pick.
The first four picks are determined this way. Picks 5-14 follow reverse standings.
Sealed Room & Secrecy
The actual drawing happens in a sealed room with team reps, league officials, media witnesses, and independent auditors from Ernst & Young.
No phones. No cameras.
The results are later revealed live on TV—after the actual draw has already taken place.
How Do the Lottery Odds Work?
And Why They Sometimes Aren’t So Simple
Flattened Odds (Post-2019 Change)
In 2019, the NBA flattened the odds to reduce the incentive for teams to tank.
Previously, the worst team had a 25% chance at the top pick.
Now? The worst three teams each have a 14% chance.
Here’s the standard flattened breakdown:
Draft Position | Odds for #1 Pick |
1st worst record | 14.0% |
2nd worst record | 14.0% |
3rd worst record | 14.0% |
4th worst record | 12.5% |
5th worst record | 10.5% |
6th worst record | 9.0% |
7th worst record | 7.5% |
8th worst record | 6.0% |
9th worst record | 4.5% |
10th worst record | 3.0% |
11th worst record | 2.0% |
12th worst record | 1.5% |
13th worst record | 1.0% |
14th worst record | 0.5% |
How Can the Odds Differ From This Chart?
When two or more teams finish with the same record:
The NBA assigns an equal split of the total combinations for those tied positions.
A coin flip determines which team will officially hold the higher draft slot, but the odds for the lottery are based on the shared pool of combinations.
This is why the actual odds can be slightly off from the clean table above.
Example: The 2025 Dallas Mavericks (1.8% Chance at #1)
The Dallas Mavericks and Chicago Bulls both finished the season with identical records: 39-43. That tied them for the 10th-worst record in the league.
When that happens, the NBA combines the lottery odds for those two draft slots (10th and 11th) and splits them evenly between the teams.
The 10th slot normally gets 30 out of 1,000 chances.
The 11th slot normally gets 20 out of 1,000 chances.
Combined, that’s 50 chances.
So each team got half of those = 25 chances each = 2.5%.
So, why only 1.8% and not 2.5?
The NBA lottery actually has 1,001 total combinations (not 1,000). The extra combo is left unassigned and is re-drawn if selected. So when you divide 50 combinations by 1,001, the true math is 4.995%.
Halved between Dallas and Chicago, that's 2.498% each.
But the NBA uses a pre-set public odds chart that often rounds down to make the math add up cleanly across all 1,000 assigned combinations.
This is why the flattened chart is a starting point — but not an absolute. When ties happen, the NBA math can get… well, more suspicious looking if you’re already wearing your tinfoil hat.
Does the Worst Team Always Get the First Pick?
Nope. And rarely.
Since the weighted lottery began in 1990, the team with the worst record has only won the lottery 8 times (as of 2024).
Statistically, the worst team wins the top pick about 20% of the time.
Which keeps the door open for fan conspiracy theories about the NBA “balancing the narrative.”
Historical NBA Draft Lottery Outcomes (Since 1990)
Year | Winning Team | Odds at #1 | #1 Picks Since 1990 |
1990 | New Jersey Nets | 11.9% | 1 |
1991 | Charlotte Hornets | 8.8% | 1 |
1992 | Orlando Magic | 15.7% | 1 |
1993 | Orlando Magic | 1.5% | 2 |
1994 | Milwaukee Bucks | 16.3% | 1 |
1995 | Golden State Warriors | 9.4% | 1 |
1996 | Philadelphia 76ers | 9.4% | 1 |
1997 | San Antonio Spurs | 21.6% | 1 |
1998 | LA Clippers | 22.5% | 1 |
1999 | Chicago Bulls | 1.7% | 1 |
2000 | New Jersey Nets | 4.4% | 2 |
2001 | Washington Wizards | 15.7% | 1 |
2002 | Houston Rockets | 8.9% | 1 |
2003 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 22.5% | 1 |
2004 | Orlando Magic | 25.0% | 3 |
2005 | Milwaukee Bucks | 6.3% | 2 |
2006 | Toronto Raptors | 8.8% | 1 |
2007 | Portland Trail Blazers | 5.3% | 1 |
2008 | Chicago Bulls | 1.7% | 2 |
2009 | LA Clippers | 17.7% | 2 |
2010 | Washington Wizards | 10.3% | 2 |
2011 | Cleveland Cavaliers* | 2.8% | 2 |
2012 | New Orleans Hornets | 13.7% | 1 |
2013 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 15.6% | 3 |
2014 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1.7% | 4 |
2015 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 25.0% | 1 |
2016 | Philadelphia 76ers | 25.0% | 2 |
2017 | Boston Celtics (via BKN) | 25.0% | 1 |
2018 | Phoenix Suns | 25.0% | 1 |
2019 | New Orleans Pelicans | 6.0% | 2 |
2020 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 14.0% | 2 |
2021 | Detroit Pistons | 14.0% | 1 |
2022 | Orlando Magic | 14.0% | 4 |
2023 | San Antonio Spurs | 14.0% | 2 |
2024 | Atlanta Hawks | 3.0% | 1 |
2025 | Dallas Mavericks | 1.8% | 1 |
Notes: For this analysis, we only looked at lotteries from 1990 onward—when the NBA introduced the modern weighted lottery system using ping pong balls. Anything before that (hello, frozen envelope truthers) was a completely different format—and basically its own conspiracy theory.
* Pick originally via Clippers, but won by Cavs due to trade protections.
Since 1990...
Teams with odds under 5% have won the lottery 19.4% of the time.
The team with the best possible odds has won the lottery 33.3% of the time.
Some franchises have been historically “lucky”:
Cleveland Cavaliers: 4 wins (including some years with tiny odds).
Orlando Magic: 4 wins, including one of the lowest odds ever (1993 at 1.5%).
LA Clippers: 2 wins, both in pivotal franchise moments.
Common Misconceptions
And Why Fans Are Still Confused
Myth: The team with the worst record is guaranteed the top pick.
Fact: Nope. It’s just a 14% shot now.
Myth: Teams get envelopes.
Fact: That ended after the 1985 frozen envelope scandal (allegedly). It’s now all ping pong balls and combinations.
Myth: The drawing is shown live.
Fact: The draw is done in private, and only the results are revealed live.
Myth: All picks are drawn in the lottery.
Fact: Only the first 4 picks are determined by the lottery. The rest are by record.
The Criticism & Conspiracy Theories
Because… Of Course
The Frozen Envelope (1985 Knicks)
The most famous theory. Fans still believe the Knicks’ envelope was frozen, bent, or otherwise marked to ensure they got Patrick Ewing.
The Pelicans & Zion (2019)
Fans side-eyed the league when New Orleans landed Zion Williamson after Anthony Davis demanded a trade. They only had a 6% chance—but got the golden ticket.
The Cavs Lottery Luck (Multiple Times)
Cleveland has won the lottery four times since 2003, including post-LeBron departures. Fans joke the Cavs are the league’s favorite charity case.
The Hornets & Anthony Davis (2012)
When the NBA still owned the New Orleans Hornets, they won the #1 pick and drafted Anthony Davis. Conflict of interest? Fans thought so. The NBA insisted it was clean.
And now… 2025 Dallas Mavericks & Cooper Flagg
Dallas traded Luka Dončić without even shopping him to other teams. Then, with just a 1.8% chance, they landed the #1 pick and the rights to Cooper Flagg.
Fans called it one of the most suspiciously timed draft lottery outcomes ever — wondering if Dallas had been quietly “promised” the pick to make the Luka trade drama-free.
The league, of course, says it’s all clean math and chance.
Fans… aren’t convinced.
The Math vs. The Narrative
Let’s be clear: improbable outcomes are supposed to happen. That’s the nature of probability. A team with a 2% chance will hit eventually. Over decades of lotteries, these upsets are mathematically inevitable.
But fans don’t see probability charts. They see patterns. They see small-market teams conveniently boosted before ownership sales. They see big-market franchises kept afloat with superstar lifelines. They see ping pong balls that always seem to fall in line with what’s best for the league’s bottom line.
The NBA, of course, has never been caught rigging the lottery. But
in a league that thrives on spectacle, perception is often more powerful than proof.
Secrecy breeds suspicion. And when the outcomes keep feeding perfectly timed narratives, no amount of Ernst & Young auditors can erase the whispers of collusion.
Things Fans Can’t Unsee
The Cavs winning right before and after LeBron’s stints fueled massive conspiracy talk.
The Magic’s back-to-back lottery wins in 1992 and 1993 remain mathematically absurd.
And the recent 2025 Mavericks’ win with 1.8% odds, right after the Luka trade? Instant meme fuel.
Has the Lottery Gotten More “Sophisticated” Over Time?
If you look at the early lottery years, they were filled with chaos—lower-odds teams frequently jumped the line, and the worst teams rarely walked away with the prize.
In the 2010s, the outcomes started to align more closely with the math. On paper, all good.
Further, from 2015 to 2018, the team with the worst record won the lottery four straight years—a stretch that made it feel like the system was finally behaving “fairly.”
But even during those “math-aligned” years, the lottery outcomes still conveniently served big-picture NBA storylines:
2012: Hornets won after the NBA owned them—boosting the franchise’s value before a sale.
2014: Cavs won with 1.7%, keeping Cleveland relevant post-LeBron.
Fans argue the lottery hasn’t just stayed suspicious—it’s evolved into a finely tuned franchise management tool.
Not overt. Not obvious.
But subtle, narrative-perfect, and increasingly “sophisticated.”
Is the NBA Draft Lottery Rigged?
So is the NBA Draft Lottery rigged? Technically, probably not. But it operates in a gray area where transparency is limited, results often feel too convenient, and the league’s best interests align a little too neatly with the outcomes.
The league can throw out stats, odds, and auditor reports. But the fans see the pattern:
The Spurs get Wemby to revive a dormant dynasty.
The Pelicans land Zion post-AD trade drama.
Dallas gets Cooper Flagg right after punting Luka to LA.
Rigged? Unlikely.
Convenient? Always.
The NBA might not be fixing the lottery in the literal sense. But the system is built in a way that keeps the narratives alive, the conspiracy theories thriving, and the fans — skeptical or not — tuning in year after year.
In the end, that might be the real fix. Not a frozen envelope. Not a backroom deal. But a perfectly “random” system that keeps feeding the league’s biggest stories exactly when it needs them most.
Because in the NBA, it’s never just math.
It’s always theater.
And the ping pong balls? They’ve never missed their cue.
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